Alex Caruso

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #9

CLE @ OKC · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2506 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

55%6 of 11L20 · Without Williams

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 6 of 11 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at LAC, 2026-04-08: 0, hit, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-19: 0, hit, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-22: 3, missed, 23 min (not counted)
at PHX, 2026-04-25: 1, hit, 22 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 1, hit, 25 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 0, hit, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 2, missed, 22 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 3, missed, 20 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 2, missed, 22 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 2, missed, 32 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 1, hit, 25 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 2, missed, 24 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 0, hit, 14 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 3, missed, 28 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 1, hit, 21 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 0, hit, 39 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 2, missed, 25 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 20 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 0, hit, 9 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 1.5 without him: 22 of 42; with him: 31 of 52 (94 games as teammates)
TodayBack from an absence
Today's game is his 1st back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 28 – Nov 2)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: 49 of 88 (94 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 1.5 without him: 2 of 2; with him: 51 of 92 (94 games as teammates). A small sample.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against CLE in his last 20; Under 1.5 hit in 1 of 5 against CLE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Ajay MitchellG
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Caruso didn't play the Nov 2 meeting; steals the last time Caruso faced them: 2 (Jan 19)

Under 1.5 hit in 1 of 5 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Williams · Under 1.5

Average: 1.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 55%; 6 of 11
Price implies: 71%; at −250
Books’ fair: 66%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −189

Research, not a pick. At −214 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −189, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2606 books	—	4/11
+1826 books	−2503 books	6/11
+5256 books	—	9/11
+13003 books	—	11/11
+24001 book	—	11/11

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings5 min ago	+159	−214Best
FanDuel2 min ago	+182	−250
betPARX1 min ago	+185Best	−265
Bally Bet4 min ago	+185Best	—
BetRivers2 min ago	+185Best	—
Bovada4 min ago	+178	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:07 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

−245 → −250 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Alex Caruso's full game log and splits