Alex Caruso

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #9

CLE @ OKC · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Assists, typical price −1281 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

2 of his last 3 came with Jalen Williams playing; Williams is out today. Without him: Over 2.5 in 18 of 42.

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Over 2.5 without him: 18 of 42; with him: 13 of 52 (94 games as teammates)
TodayBack from an absence
Today's game is his 1st back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 28 – Nov 2)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 2 of 6; with him: 29 of 88 (94 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Over 2.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 30 of 92 (94 games as teammates). A small sample.

36%4 of 11L20 · Without Williams

Over 2.5 Assists cleared in 4 of 11 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at LAC, 2026-04-08: 0, missed, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-19: 1, missed, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-22: 1, missed, 23 min (not counted)
at PHX, 2026-04-25: 1, missed, 22 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 1, missed, 25 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 2, missed, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 4, cleared, 22 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 2, missed, 20 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 1, missed, 22 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 1, missed, 32 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 5, cleared, 25 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 1, missed, 24 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 1, missed, 14 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 6, cleared, 28 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 0, missed, 21 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 4, cleared, 39 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 25 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 5, cleared, 20 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 6, cleared, 22 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 3, cleared, 9 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Splits

Over 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against CLE in his last 20; Over 2.5 cleared in 2 of 5 against CLE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Ajay MitchellG
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Caruso didn't play the Nov 2 meeting; assists the last time Caruso faced them: 2 (Jan 19)

Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Williams · Over 2.5

Average: 2.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 36%; 4 of 11
Price implies: 56%; at −128
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Minutes: 22.3; 11 games · 19.3 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 2.5 52%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−3701 book	—	6/11
−1281 book	−1041 book	4/11
+2001 book	—	3/11
+9001 book	—	1/11

Compare 1 sportsbook and 3 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel4 min ago	−128Best	−104Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:54 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

3.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Alex Caruso's full game log and splits