Ajay Mitchell

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #25

CLE @ OKC · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Assists, typical price −1675 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Over 3.5 without him: 18 of 40; with him: 18 of 45 (85 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 5 of 12; with him: 31 of 73 (85 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Over 3.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: 32 of 79 (85 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
CLE allow 15.7 assists a game to guards: 14th most of 30
7 games

58%7 of 12L20 · Without Williams

Over 3.5 Assists cleared in 7 of 12 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at LAL, 2026-04-07: 3, missed, 21 min
at LAC, 2026-04-08: 3, missed, 24 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-19: 2, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-22: 5, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
at PHX, 2026-04-25: 2, missed, 32 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 6, cleared, 34 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 4, cleared, 28 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 6, cleared, 30 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 10, cleared, 30 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 4, cleared, 33 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 5, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 2, missed, 28 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 1, missed, 17 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 6, cleared, 23 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 23 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 4, cleared, 28 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 5, cleared, 25 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 28 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 5, cleared, 26 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 1, missed, 35 min

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2–7 assists.

Splits

Over 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L20

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Assists: 1 in 35 min, Nov 2 (away)

Over 3.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Williams · Over 3.5

Average: 4.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 4; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 58%; 7 of 12
Price implies: 63%; at −167
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −165 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −131, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−25001 book	—	10/12
−4204 books	—	9/12
−1675 books	+1233 books	7/12
+1284 books	−1641 book	5/12
+2505 books	—	3/12
+4754 books	—	1/12
+9002 books	—	1/12

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
Bally Bet8 min ago	−165Best	—
betPARX4 min ago	−165Best	+123
BetRivers4 min ago	−167	+123
DraftKings8 min ago	−174	—
FanDuel4 min ago	−174	+130Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:13 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

4.5 → 3.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Ajay Mitchell's full game log and splits