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Ajay Mitchell

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #25

CLE @ OKC · Tomorrow 8:00 PM
OverUnder4.5
Under 4.5 Assists, typical price −1781 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TonightTeammate out

    Jalen Williams: Out (leg)

    Under 4.5 without him: 29 of 40; with him: 34 of 45 (85 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)

    Under 4.5 without him: 7 of 12; with him: 56 of 73 (85 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Alex Caruso: Out (ankle)

    Under 4.5 without him: 14 of 18; with him: 49 of 67 (85 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)

    Under 4.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: 60 of 79 (85 games as teammates)

Game log against Under 4.5

58%7 of 12L20 · Without Williams

Under 4.5 Assists hit in 7 of 12 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

  1. at LAL, 2026-04-07: 3, hit, 21 min
  2. at LAC, 2026-04-08: 3, hit, 24 min (not counted)
  3. vs PHX, 2026-04-19: 2, hit, 22 min (not counted)
  4. vs PHX, 2026-04-22: 5, missed, 29 min (not counted)
  5. at PHX, 2026-04-25: 2, hit, 32 min
  6. at PHX, 2026-04-27: 6, missed, 34 min
  7. vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 4, hit, 28 min
  8. vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 6, missed, 30 min
  9. at LAL, 2026-05-09: 10, missed, 30 min
  10. at LAL, 2026-05-11: 4, hit, 33 min
  11. vs SA, 2026-05-18: 5, missed, 34 min (not counted)
  12. vs SA, 2026-05-20: 2, hit, 28 min (not counted)
  13. at SA, 2026-05-22: 1, hit, 17 min
  14. at SA, 2026-10-20: 6, missed, 23 min (not counted)
  15. vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 23 min (not counted)
  16. vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 4, hit, 28 min (not counted)
  17. vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 5, missed, 25 min
  18. at DAL, 2026-10-28: 3, hit, 28 min
  19. at HOU, 2026-10-31: 5, missed, 26 min
  20. at CLE, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 35 min
Under hitMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 2–7 assists.

Splits

Under 4.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 4.5 · L20

  • Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG

  • Jalen WilliamsGOut

  • Chet HolmgrenCOut

  • Alex CarusoGOut

  • Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Assists: 1 in 35 min, Nov 2 (away)

Under 4.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Williams · Under 4.5

Average
4.2
−0.3 vs line
Median
4
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
58%
7 of 12
Price implies
64%
at −178
Books’ fair
60%
margin removed
Our chance
61%
estimate · fair −158

Research, not a pick. At −178 the price is worse than our fair −158, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Williams
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL20
−20001 book—2/12
−1661 bookpick'em only5/12
+1321 book−1781 book7/12
+2651 book—9/12
+10001 book—11/12
+30001 book—11/12
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
FanDuel2 min ago+132Best−178Best
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 3:35 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

−174 → −178 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%
Ajay Mitchell's full game log and splits