Ajay Mitchell
CLE @ OKC · Tomorrow 8:00 PM
What's different tonight
Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 4.5 without him: 29 of 40; with him: 34 of 45 (85 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 4.5 without him: 7 of 12; with him: 56 of 73 (85 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Alex Caruso: Out (ankle)
Under 4.5 without him: 14 of 18; with him: 49 of 67 (85 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 4.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: 60 of 79 (85 games as teammates)
Game log against Under 4.5
58%7 of 12L20 · Without Williams
Under 4.5 Assists hit in 7 of 12 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 2–7 assists.
Splits
Under 4.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 4.5 · L20Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Alex CarusoGOut
Cason WallaceGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs CLE
Assists: 1 in 35 min, Nov 2 (away)
Under 4.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against CLE on record
L20 · Without Williams · Under 4.5
- Average
- 4.2
- −0.3 vs line
- Median
- 4
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 58%
- 7 of 12
- Price implies
- 64%
- at −175
- Books’ fair
- 59%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 61%
- estimate · fair −156
Research, not a pick. At −174 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −156, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L20 · Without Williams| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −20001 book | — | 2/12 | |
| −4203 books | — | 3/12 | |
| −1674 books | pick'em only | 5/12 | |
| +1264 books | −1753 books | 7/12 | |
| +2454 books | — | 9/12 | |
| +4603 books | — | 11/12 | |
| +10001 book | — | 11/12 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 4.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 4.5 | Under 4.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel3 min ago | +130Best | −174Best |
| betPARX2 min ago | +128 | −175 |
| BetRivers3 min ago | +125 | −175 |
| Bally Bet3 min ago | +125 | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 4:59 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
4.5−174 → −175 since first seen