Ace Bailey

Utah Jazz · G · #19

UTAH @ NO · Live

Over Under7.5

Over 7.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1323 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

56%9 of 16L20 · Without Jackson

Over 7.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 9 of 16 games without Jaren Jackson Jr. (his last 20 games).

at MIN, 2026-03-18: 4, missed, 25 min
vs MIL, 2026-03-19: 13, cleared, 34 min
vs PHI, 2026-03-21: 11, cleared, 33 min
vs TOR, 2026-03-23: 9, cleared, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-25: 8, cleared, 29 min
at DEN, 2026-03-27: 8, cleared, 27 min
at PHX, 2026-03-28: 8, cleared, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-03-30: 7, missed, 35 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-01: 3, missed, 33 min
at HOU, 2026-04-03: 7, missed, 33 min
at OKC, 2026-04-05: 6, missed, 33 min
vs MEM, 2026-04-10: 12, cleared, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-04-12: 4, missed, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-10-21: 8, cleared, 24 min (not counted)
vs NO, 2026-10-23: 9, cleared, 22 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2026-10-25: 16, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs MEM, 2026-10-26: 13, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-10-28: 6, missed, 40 min
vs POR, 2026-10-31: 8, cleared, 37 min
at SA, 2026-11-02: 8, cleared, 24 min

ClearedMissedThe 7.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for Wednesday's game: a typical game lands 4.2–13 reb+ast.

What's different on Wednesday

Over 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

4 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Jaren Jackson Jr. playing; Jackson is out on Wednesday. Without him: Over 7.5 in 14 of 27.

WedTeammate out
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (knee)
Over 7.5 without him: 14 of 27; with him: 6 of 7 (34 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (foot)
Over 7.5 without him: 20 of 41; with him: 11 of 38 (79 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 32.8 min · 2025–26: 27.6 (72 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at SA

Splits

Over 7.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 7.5 · L20

Keyonte GeorgeG
Lauri MarkkanenF
Jaren Jackson Jr.FOut
Jusuf NurkicCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out on Wednesday. Only games they were teammates on the Jazz count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NO

Reb+Ast: 9 in 22 min, Oct 23 (home)

Over 7.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against NO on record

L20 · Without Jackson · Over 7.5

Average: 7.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 8; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 56%; 9 of 16
Price implies: 57%; at −132
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −141

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −141, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Jackson

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−9102 books	—	13/16
−2301 book	+1701 book	11/16
−1323 books	+1002 books	9/16
+1201 book	−1601 book	4/16
+1802 books	—	3/16
+4751 book	—	2/16
+15001 book	—	0/16

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
Bovada40 hr ago	−130Best	+100Best
DraftKings40 hr ago	−132	+100Best
Bally Bet40 hr ago	−137	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

−139 → −132 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Ace Bailey's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:13 PM ET.