Ace Bailey

Utah Jazz · G · #19

UTAH @ NO · Live

Over Under15.5

Over 15.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1023 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

75%12 of 16L20 · Without Jackson

Over 15.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 12 of 16 games without Jaren Jackson Jr. (his last 20 games).

at MIN, 2026-03-18: 19, cleared, 25 min
vs MIL, 2026-03-19: 37, cleared, 34 min
vs PHI, 2026-03-21: 29, cleared, 33 min
vs TOR, 2026-03-23: 40, cleared, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-25: 18, cleared, 29 min
at DEN, 2026-03-27: 16, cleared, 27 min
at PHX, 2026-03-28: 15, missed, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-03-30: 24, cleared, 35 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-01: 14, missed, 33 min
at HOU, 2026-04-03: 23, cleared, 33 min
at OKC, 2026-04-05: 16, cleared, 33 min
vs MEM, 2026-04-10: 25, cleared, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-04-12: 16, cleared, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-10-21: 15, missed, 24 min (not counted)
vs NO, 2026-10-23: 8, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2026-10-25: 21, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs MEM, 2026-10-26: 20, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-10-28: 19, cleared, 40 min
vs POR, 2026-10-31: 10, missed, 37 min
at SA, 2026-11-02: 7, missed, 24 min

ClearedMissedThe 15.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 8.7–28.2 pts+ast.

What's different yesterday

Over 15.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (knee)
Over 15.5 without him: 18 of 27; with him: 4 of 7 (34 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (foot)
Over 15.5 without him: 26 of 41; with him: 14 of 38 (79 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 32.8 min · 2025–26: 27.6 (72 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at SA

Splits

Over 15.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 15.5 · L20

Keyonte GeorgeG
Lauri MarkkanenF
Jaren Jackson Jr.FOut
Jusuf NurkicCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Jazz count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NO

Pts+Ast: 8 in 22 min, Oct 23 (home)

Over 15.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against NO on record

L20 · Without Jackson · Over 15.5

Average: 20.5; +5 vs line
Median: 18.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 75%; 12 of 16
Price implies: 50%; at −102
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At +100 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −129, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Jackson

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−5902 books	—	15/16
−1701 book	+1301 book	14/16
−1323 books	+1001 book	13/16
−1023 books	−1302 books	12/16
+2352 books	—	6/16
+7301 book	—	4/16
+18601 book	—	2/16

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 15.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 15.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 15.5	Under 15.5
Bovada6 hr ago	+100Best	−130
DraftKings6 hr ago	−102	−129Best
Bally Bet6 hr ago	−104	—

Prices as of 8:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

15.5

Over: −110 → −102 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Ace Bailey's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:13 PM ET.