Ace Bailey

Utah Jazz · G · #19

UTAH @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Rebounds, typical price −1403 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

3 of his last 6 came with Jaren Jackson Jr. playing; Jackson is out today. Without him: Over 5.5 in 15 of 27.

TodayTeammate out
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (knee)
Over 5.5 without him: 15 of 27; with him: 4 of 7 (34 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs guards
NO allow 10.9 rebounds a game to guards: the fewest of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (foot)
Over 5.5 without him: 20 of 41; with him: 7 of 38 (79 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 32.8 min · 2025–26: 27.6 (72 games)

63%10 of 16L20 · Without Jackson

Over 5.5 Rebounds cleared in 10 of 16 games without Jaren Jackson Jr. (his last 20 games).

at MIN, 2026-03-18: 2, missed, 25 min
vs MIL, 2026-03-19: 9, cleared, 34 min
vs PHI, 2026-03-21: 7, cleared, 33 min
vs TOR, 2026-03-23: 6, cleared, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-25: 5, missed, 29 min
at DEN, 2026-03-27: 7, cleared, 27 min
at PHX, 2026-03-28: 6, cleared, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-03-30: 2, missed, 35 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-01: 1, missed, 33 min
at HOU, 2026-04-03: 6, cleared, 33 min
at OKC, 2026-04-05: 4, missed, 33 min
vs MEM, 2026-04-10: 10, cleared, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-04-12: 3, missed, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-10-21: 5, missed, 24 min (not counted)
vs NO, 2026-10-23: 7, cleared, 22 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2026-10-25: 12, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs MEM, 2026-10-26: 10, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-10-28: 6, cleared, 40 min
vs POR, 2026-10-31: 7, cleared, 37 min
at SA, 2026-11-02: 6, cleared, 24 min

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2.7–9.9 rebounds.

Splits

Over 5.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 5.5 · L20

Keyonte GeorgeG
Lauri MarkkanenF
Jaren Jackson Jr.FOut
Jusuf NurkicCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Jazz count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NO

Rebounds: 7 in 22 min, Oct 23 (home)

Over 5.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against NO on record

L20 · Without Jackson · Over 5.5

Average: 5.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 6; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 63%; 10 of 16
Price implies: 58%; at −140
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −149

Research, not a pick. At −134 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −149, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Jackson

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−13801 book	—	13/16
−6502 books	—	12/16
−2621 book	—	11/16
−1403 books	+1063 books	10/16
+1271 book	—	5/16
+2172 books	—	2/16
+3591 book	—	2/16

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
DraftKings3 min ago	−134Best	+102
FanDuel2 min ago	−140	+106
Pinnacle3 min ago	−154	+116Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:14 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

−135 → −140 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Ace Bailey's full game log and splits