Ace Bailey

Utah Jazz · G · #19

UTAH @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under13.5

Over 13.5 Points, typical price −1074 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 13.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (knee)
Over 13.5 without him: 18 of 27; with him: 3 of 7 (34 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (foot)
Over 13.5 without him: 26 of 41; with him: 11 of 38 (79 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
NO allow 57.7 points a game to guards: 13th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 32.8 min · 2025–26: 27.6 (72 games)

75%12 of 16L20 · Without Jackson

Over 13.5 Points cleared in 12 of 16 games without Jaren Jackson Jr. (his last 20 games).

at MIN, 2026-03-18: 17, cleared, 25 min
vs MIL, 2026-03-19: 33, cleared, 34 min
vs PHI, 2026-03-21: 25, cleared, 33 min
vs TOR, 2026-03-23: 37, cleared, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-25: 15, cleared, 29 min
at DEN, 2026-03-27: 15, cleared, 27 min
at PHX, 2026-03-28: 13, missed, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-03-30: 19, cleared, 35 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-01: 12, missed, 33 min
at HOU, 2026-04-03: 22, cleared, 33 min
at OKC, 2026-04-05: 14, cleared, 33 min
vs MEM, 2026-04-10: 23, cleared, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-04-12: 15, cleared, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-10-21: 12, missed, 24 min (not counted)
vs NO, 2026-10-23: 6, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2026-10-25: 17, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs MEM, 2026-10-26: 17, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-10-28: 19, cleared, 40 min
vs POR, 2026-10-31: 9, missed, 37 min
at SA, 2026-11-02: 5, missed, 24 min

ClearedMissedThe 13.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 6.8–25.7 points.

Splits

Over 13.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 13.5 · L20

Keyonte GeorgeG
Lauri MarkkanenF
Jaren Jackson Jr.FOut
Jusuf NurkicCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Jazz count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NO

Points: 6 in 22 min, Oct 23 (home)

Over 13.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against NO on record

L20 · Without Jackson · Over 13.5

Average: 18.3; +4.8 vs line
Median: 16; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 75%; 12 of 16
Price implies: 52%; at −107
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −128

Research, not a pick. At +100 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −128, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Jackson

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2751 book	+2001 book	14/16
−1902 books	+1451 book	14/16
−1451 book	+1101 book	13/16
−1074 books	−1254 books	12/16
+1223 books	−1601 book	11/16
+1501 book	−2001 book	8/16
+1901 book	−2601 book	8/16

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 13.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 13.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 13.5	Under 13.5
FanDuel2 min ago	+100Best	−132
Pinnacle14 min ago	−106	−125
DraftKings14 min ago	−107	−120Best
Bovada14 min ago	−110	−120Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:30 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

13.5

Over: −102 → −107 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Ace Bailey's full game log and splits