William Nylander

Toronto Maple Leafs · RW · #88

UTAH @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price +1086 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
John Tavares: Out (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 5 of 9; with him: 34 of 79 (88 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kirill Marchenko: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 8 of 14 (16 games as teammates). A small sample.
Teammate out
Max Domi: Injured Reserve (back)
Over 2.5 without him: 9 of 17; with him: 30 of 71 (88 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Marshall Rifai: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 23 of 41; with him: 2 of 3 (44 games as teammates)

56%5 of 9L20 · Without Tavares

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 5 of 9 games without John Tavares (his last 20 games).

at NYI, 2026-04-09: 2, missed, 21.9 min (not counted)
vs FLA, 2026-04-11: 5, cleared, 19.8 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-04-13: 3, cleared, 22.8 min (not counted)
at OTT, 2026-04-15: 3, cleared, 20.5 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-09-29: 5, cleared, 18.9 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-09-30: 1, missed, 17.5 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-10-03: 2, missed, 21.4 min (not counted)
vs NSH, 2026-10-06: 1, missed, 22.8 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-08: 5, cleared, 20.5 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-10: 4, cleared, 19.9 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-13: 4, cleared, 21.8 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-10-15: 5, cleared, 22.3 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 20.6 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-19: 3, cleared, 20.8 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-20: 2, missed, 17.9 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 20.2 min
at EDM, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 16 min
at CGY, 2026-10-26: 4, cleared, 19.2 min
at SEA, 2026-10-28: 3, cleared, 22.2 min
at VAN, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 19.7 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTime on ice

Count only

Over 2.5 · L20

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

Auston MatthewsC
John TavaresCOut
Kirill MarchenkoRWInjured Reserve
Max DomiCInjured Reserve
Marshall RifaiDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Maple Leafs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Shots on Goal: 4 in 21.8 min, Oct 13 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Tavares · Over 2.5

Average: 2.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 56%; 5 of 9
Price implies: 48%; at +108
Books’ fair: 45%; margin removed
Time on ice: 19.6; 9 games · 19.4 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 2.5 45%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Tavares

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−15062 books	—	9/9
−2812 books	—	7/9
+1086 books	−1455 books	5/9
+2672 books	—	2/9
+6152 books	—	0/9
+14001 book	—	0/9

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	+110Best	−152
betPARX5 min ago	+110Best	−152
BetRivers3 min ago	+110Best	—
FanDuel3 min ago	+106	−138Best
DraftKings13 min ago	+105	−145
Pinnacle5 min ago	+105	−139
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:02 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over −104 → +108 since first seen

William Nylander's full game log and splits