William Nylander

Toronto Maple Leafs · RW · #88

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −2256 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

1 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with John Tavares playing; Tavares is out tonight. Without him: Over 0.5 in 7 of 9.

TonightTeammate out
John Tavares: Out (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 7 of 9; with him: 53 of 79 (88 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kirill Marchenko: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 10 of 14 (16 games as teammates). A small sample.
Teammate out
Max Domi: Injured Reserve (back)
Over 0.5 without him: 11 of 17; with him: 49 of 71 (88 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Marshall Rifai: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 29 of 41; with him: 2 of 3 (44 games as teammates)

78%7 of 9L20 · Without Tavares

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 7 of 9 games without John Tavares (his last 20 games).

at NYI, 2026-04-09: 0, missed, 21.9 min (not counted)
vs FLA, 2026-04-11: 2, cleared, 19.8 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-04-13: 3, cleared, 22.8 min (not counted)
at OTT, 2026-04-15: 1, cleared, 20.5 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-09-29: 2, cleared, 18.9 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-09-30: 0, missed, 17.5 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-10-03: 1, cleared, 21.4 min (not counted)
vs NSH, 2026-10-06: 3, cleared, 22.8 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-08: 0, missed, 20.5 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-10: 5, cleared, 19.9 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-13: 1, cleared, 21.8 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 22.3 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 20.6 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-19: 1, cleared, 20.8 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 17.9 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-22: 1, cleared, 20.2 min
at EDM, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 16 min
at CGY, 2026-10-26: 1, cleared, 19.2 min
at SEA, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 22.2 min
at VAN, 2026-10-31: 2, cleared, 19.7 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 points.

Count only

Over 0.5 · L20

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Auston MatthewsC
John TavaresCOut
Kirill MarchenkoRWInjured Reserve
Max DomiCInjured Reserve
Marshall RifaiDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Maple Leafs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Points: 1 in 21.8 min, Oct 13 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Tavares · Over 0.5

Average: 1.6; +1.1 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 78%; 7 of 9
Price implies: 69%; at −225
Books’ fair: 63%; margin removed
Our chance: 66%; estimate · fair −194

Research, not a pick. At −210 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −194, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Tavares

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2256 books	+1552 books	7/9
+2055 books	—	4/9
+6005 books	—	1/9

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings11 min ago	−210Best	+155Best
Pinnacle3 min ago	−210Best	+155Best
Bally Bet3 min ago	−225	—
betPARX4 min ago	−225	—
BetRivers2 min ago	−225	—
FanDuel1 min ago	−235	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:02 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

1.5 → 0.5 since first seen

William Nylander's full game log and splits