Trevor Zegras

Philadelphia Flyers · C · #46

PHI @ NYR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1527 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 on the road).

vs SEA, 2026-10-13: 5, cleared, 21.7 min
at DET, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 18 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-17: 5, cleared, 19.3 min
vs COL, 2026-10-19: 3, cleared, 17.7 min
at BUF, 2026-10-21: 4, cleared, 16.6 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 21.5 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-27: 3, cleared, 20.8 min
at WSH, 2026-10-28: 4, cleared, 19.2 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 17.1 min
vs MIN, 2026-11-03: 0, missed, 20 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Rasmus Ristolainen: Injured Reserve (hand)
Over 1.5 without him: 11 of 19; with him: 26 of 58 (77 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Dylan Garand (Confirmed)
Saves: 225 of 251 (.896) over his last 10 games · 9 of NYR's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
NYR allow 18.7 shots on goal a game to forwards: 24th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 19.4, 18th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 19.7 min · 2026–27: 18.7 (17 games)
Power play: 4.2 min last 5 · 3.4 2026–27

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYR in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 3 of 6 against NYR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Matvei MichkovRW
Oliver BonkD
Travis KonecnyRW
Rasmus RistolainenDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Flyers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NYR

Shots on Goal: 1 in 19.5 min, Mar 9 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against NYR on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.9; +1.4 vs line
Median: 3; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −152
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −133, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8003 books	—	9/10
−1527 books	+1085 books	7/10
+1853 books	—	7/10
+4703 books	—	4/10
+13001 book	—	2/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bovada3 min ago	−130Best	+100
DraftKings4 min ago	−140	+105
Bally Bet4 min ago	−152	+108
betPARX2 min ago	−152	+108
BetRivers3 min ago	−152	—
Pinnacle4 min ago	−153	+115Best
FanDuel2 min ago	−168	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:56 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −130 → −152 since first seen

Trevor Zegras's full game log and splits