Steven Stamkos

Nashville Predators · C · #91

CAR @ NSH · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1767 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Opposing goalie
Pyotr Kochetkov (Expected)
Saves: 196 of 211 (.929) over his last 10 games · 8 of CAR's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
CAR allow 17.3 shots on goal a game to forwards: 28th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 18.0, 26th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 18.8 min · 2026–27: 18.8 (14 games)
Power play: 4.1 min last 5 · 3.9 2026–27
Rest
2 days off since Oct 31 vs TB

60%6 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 7 at home).

at OTT, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 19 min
vs VGK, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 18.9 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-15: 2, hit, 20.6 min
vs STL, 2026-10-17: 1, hit, 17.6 min
at BOS, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 14.1 min
at PIT, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 19 min
vs COL, 2026-10-25: 4, missed, 17.8 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 20.3 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-29: 3, missed, 20.4 min
vs TB, 2026-10-31: 6, missed, 16.3 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–5 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CAR in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 4 against CAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Roman JosiD
Filip ForsbergLW
Ryan O'ReillyC

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Predators count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CAR

Shots on Goal: 2 in 19 min, Dec 17, 2025 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against CAR on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −176
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −130, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−13003 books	—	1/10
−2153 books	—	4/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	4/10
+1257 books	−1766 books	6/10
+3403 books	—	8/10
+6501 book	—	9/10
+16001 book	—	9/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	+110	−155Best
betPARX4 min ago	+110	−155Best
DraftKings9 min ago	+125	−175
FanDuel4 min ago	+136	−178
Bovada5 min ago	+140Best	−185
Pinnacle5 min ago	+140Best	−188
BetRivers4 min ago	+110	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:33 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under isn't priced at 2.5 right now.

Steven Stamkos's full game log and splits