Nikolaj Ehlers

Carolina Hurricanes · LW · #27

CAR @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1526 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

vs WSH, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 19.8 min
at WPG, 2026-10-17: 1, hit, 15.9 min
at CGY, 2026-10-18: 3, missed, 16.4 min
at VAN, 2026-10-20: 4, missed, 17.2 min
at EDM, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 17.1 min
at STL, 2026-10-24: 2, hit, 15.5 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-27: 4, missed, 16.3 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 15.9 min
vs WPG, 2026-11-01: 4, missed, 13.4 min
at NSH, 2026-11-03: 3, missed, 19 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Semyon Varlamov (Confirmed)
Saves: 81 of 91 (.890) over his last 4 games · 3 of NYI's last 10 starts · Ilya Sorokin started 7
Teammate out
Jordan Staal: Injured Reserve (calf)
Under 2.5 without him: 9 of 18; with him: 59 of 99 (117 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
NYI allow 19.4 shots on goal a game to forwards: 20th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 19.3, 19th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 16 min · 2026–27: 16.3 (17 games)
Power play: 2.8 min last 5 · 3.7 2026–27

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYI in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 5 against NYI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Sebastian AhoC
Jackson BlakeRW
Logan StankovenC
Jordan StaalCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hurricanes count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NYI

Shots on Goal: 5 in 15 min, Apr 14 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 5 games against NYI on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −152
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −138 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −134, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−16002 books	—	1/10
−2552 books	—	4/10
+1086 books	−1525 books	5/10
+2652 books	—	7/10
+6002 books	—	10/10
+14001 book	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle3 min ago	+106	−138Best
Bally Bet2 min ago	+108	−152
betPARX1 min ago	+108	−152
DraftKings3 min ago	+115	−155
FanDuel1 min ago	+122Best	−160
BetRivers3 min ago	+108	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:36 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under isn't priced at 2.5 right now.

Nikolaj Ehlers's full game log and splits