Nikolaj Ehlers

Carolina Hurricanes · LW · #27

CAR @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1656 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

vs WSH, 2026-10-13: 1, cleared, 19.8 min
at WPG, 2026-10-17: 1, cleared, 15.9 min
at CGY, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 16.4 min
at VAN, 2026-10-20: 3, cleared, 17.2 min
at EDM, 2026-10-22: 1, cleared, 17.1 min
at STL, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 15.5 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 16.3 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-29: 1, cleared, 15.9 min
vs WPG, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 13.4 min
at NSH, 2026-11-03: 0, missed, 19 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Semyon Varlamov (Confirmed)
Saves: 81 of 91 (.890) over his last 4 games · 3 of NYI's last 10 starts · Ilya Sorokin started 7
Teammate out
Jordan Staal: Injured Reserve (calf)
Over 0.5 without him: 13 of 18; with him: 56 of 99 (117 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
NYI allow 5.50 points a game to forwards: 26th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 5.80, 22nd most
Time on ice
Last 5: 16 min · 2026–27: 16.3 (17 games)
Power play: 2.8 min last 5 · 3.7 2026–27

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYI in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 4 of 5 against NYI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Sebastian AhoC
Jackson BlakeRW
Logan StankovenC
Jordan StaalCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hurricanes count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NYI

Points: 1 in 15 min, Apr 14 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against NYI on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −165
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −136

Research, not a pick. At −136 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −136, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1656 books	+1022 books	8/10
+2855 books	—	2/10
+13002 books	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle6 min ago	−136Best	+102
DraftKings6 min ago	−140	+105Best
FanDuel2 min ago	−140	—
Bally Bet6 min ago	−165	—
betPARX1 min ago	−165	—
BetRivers3 min ago	−165	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:33 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

−146 → −165 since first seen

Nikolaj Ehlers's full game log and splits