Nikolaj Ehlers

Carolina Hurricanes · LW · #27

CAR @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −1956 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 4 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

vs WSH, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 19.8 min
at WPG, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 15.9 min
at CGY, 2026-10-18: 0, hit, 16.4 min
at VAN, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 17.2 min
at EDM, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 17.1 min
at STL, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 15.5 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-27: 1, missed, 16.3 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 15.9 min
vs WPG, 2026-11-01: 2, missed, 13.4 min
at NSH, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 19 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 assists.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Semyon Varlamov (Confirmed)
Saves: 81 of 91 (.890) over his last 4 games · 3 of NYI's last 10 starts · Ilya Sorokin started 7
Teammate out
Jordan Staal: Injured Reserve (calf)
Under 0.5 without him: 8 of 18; with him: 59 of 99 (117 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
NYI allow 2.93 assists a game to forwards: 29th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 3.00, 27th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 16 min · 2026–27: 16.3 (17 games)
Power play: 2.8 min last 5 · 3.7 2026–27

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYI in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 5 against NYI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Sebastian AhoC
Jackson BlakeRW
Logan StankovenC
Jordan StaalCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hurricanes count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NYI

Assists: 0 in 15 min, Apr 14 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against NYI on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 66%; at −195
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −183 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1146 books	−1952 books	4/10
	+8302 books	—	9/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle7 min ago	+136	−183Best
DraftKings7 min ago	+140	−195
Bally Bet7 min ago	+114	—
betPARX2 min ago	+114	—
BetRivers4 min ago	+114	—
FanDuel3 min ago	+144Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:33 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Nikolaj Ehlers's full game log and splits