Nick Schmaltz

Utah Mammoth · C · #8

UTAH @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −1555 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at BUF, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 19.2 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 16.9 min
at EDM, 2026-10-15: 2, missed, 19.3 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 17 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-19: 1, missed, 17.7 min
at SEA, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 17.8 min
vs TB, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 15 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-27: 1, missed, 18.5 min
at PIT, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 15.4 min
at PHI, 2026-11-01: 2, missed, 18.4 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 assists.

Count only

Under 0.5 · L10

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Clayton KellerRW
Mikhail SergachevD
Logan CooleyC
John MarinoDInjured Reserve
Maveric LamoureuxDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mammoth count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Matchup · 16 games

TOR allow 3.75 assists a game to forwards: 15th most of 32

Rest

1 day off since Nov 1 at PHI

Last vs TOR

Assists: 1 in 16.9 min, Oct 13 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against TOR on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −155
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −155 the price is worse than our fair −130, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
+1025 books	−1551 book	5/10
+6402 books	—	8/10
+22001 book	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings1 min ago	+115	−155Best
Bally Bet1 min ago	+102	—
betPARX1 min ago	+102	—
BetRivers1 min ago	+102	—
FanDuel1 min ago	+118Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:03 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.