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Mitch Marner

Vegas Golden Knights · RW · #93

VGK @ DET · Today 7:00 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1756 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 2.5

70%7 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

  1. vs LA, 2026-10-10: 3, missed, 20.3 min
  2. at MIN, 2026-10-12: 2, hit, 21.5 min
  3. at NSH, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 15.4 min
  4. vs CGY, 2026-10-15: 1, hit, 18.7 min
  5. vs PIT, 2026-10-17: 1, hit, 17.1 min
  6. vs TB, 2026-10-20: 5, missed, 17.5 min
  7. vs OTT, 2026-10-27: 2, hit, 21.7 min
  8. vs NJ, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 17.7 min
  9. at BOS, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 24.4 min
  10. at PIT, 2026-11-03: 3, missed, 21.6 min
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TodayOpposing goalie

    Daniil Tarasov (Expected)

    Saves: 210 of 227 (.925) over his last 10 games · 4 of DET's last 10 starts · John Gibson started 5

  • Teammate out

    Parker Wotherspoon: Injured Reserve (upper body)

    Under 2.5 without him: 7 of 9; with him: 2 of 6 (15 games as teammates)

  • Defense vs forwards

    DET allow 17.6 shots on goal a game to forwards: 26th most of 32

    16 games · last 10 games: 16.4, 29th most

  • Time on ice

    Last 5: 20.6 min · 2026–27: 20.2 (15 games)

    Power play: 3.1 min last 5 · 3.9 2026–27

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 6 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

  • Victor OlofssonLW

  • Jack EichelC

  • Mark StoneRW

  • Parker WotherspoonDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Golden Knights count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Shots on Goal: 1 in 20 min, Mar 4 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against DET on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average
2
−0.5 vs line
Median
1.5
−1 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
64%
at −175
Books’ fair
58%
margin removed
Our chance
60%
estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −175 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −151, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−8503 books—0/10
−1904 books+1402 books5/10
pick'em onlypick'em only5/10
+1206 books−1752 books7/10
+3603 books—9/10
+9001 book—9/10
+20001 book—10/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
Bally Bet7 min ago+120−175Best
betPARX5 min ago+120−175Best
BetRivers3 min ago+120—
Bovada6 min ago+188Best—
DraftKings7 min ago+145—
FanDuel3 min ago+142—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 12:04 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

1.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Mitch Marner's full game log and splits