Mikael Backlund

Calgary Flames · C · #11

CGY @ SEA · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1842 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
SEA allow 22.2 shots on goal a game to forwards: 3rd most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 23.0, 4th most
Teammate out
Jonathan Huberdeau: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 1.5 without him: 25 of 40; with him: 35 of 50 (90 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Connor Zary: Out (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 12 of 19; with him: 49 of 76 (95 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Philipp Grubauer (Expected)
Saves: 217 of 246 (.882) over his last 10 games · 7 of SEA's last 10 starts

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

vs COL, 2026-10-08: 8, cleared, 17.7 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-10: 1, missed, 19.4 min
at ANA, 2026-10-13: 3, cleared, 21.2 min
at VGK, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 18.7 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-18: 2, cleared, 13.5 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 18.5 min
at EDM, 2026-10-28: 2, cleared, 18.5 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-30: 1, missed, 17.9 min
at COL, 2026-10-31: 5, cleared, 19.1 min
at SJ, 2026-11-02: 4, cleared, 20.8 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Matt CoronatoRW
Joel FarabeeLW
Matvei GridinRW
Jonathan HuberdeauLWInjured Reserve
Connor ZaryCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Flames count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SEA

Shots on Goal: 1 in 17.9 min, Oct 30 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 7 of 10 games against SEA on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.8; +1.3 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −184
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −186

Research, not a pick. At −184 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −186, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−10001 book	—	10/10
−1842 books	+1402 books	6/10
+1751 book	pick'em only	4/10
+4151 book	—	3/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−184Best	+140Best
Pinnacle6 min ago	−184Best	+140Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:14 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −182 → −184 since first seen

Mikael Backlund's full game log and splits