Mikael Backlund

Calgary Flames · C · #11

CGY @ SEA · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −1705 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
SEA allow 7.64 points a game to forwards: 3rd most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 8.10, 5th most
Teammate out
Jonathan Huberdeau: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 0.5 without him: 26 of 40; with him: 26 of 50 (90 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Connor Zary: Out (knee)
Under 0.5 without him: 12 of 19; with him: 44 of 76 (95 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Philipp Grubauer (Expected)
Saves: 217 of 246 (.882) over his last 10 games · 7 of SEA's last 10 starts

50%5 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Points hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

vs COL, 2026-10-08: 1, missed, 17.7 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 19.4 min
at ANA, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 21.2 min
at VGK, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 18.7 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-18: 0, hit, 13.5 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 18.5 min
at EDM, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 18.5 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-30: 1, missed, 17.9 min
at COL, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 19.1 min
at SJ, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 20.8 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 points.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Matt CoronatoRW
Joel FarabeeLW
Matvei GridinRW
Jonathan HuberdeauLWInjured Reserve
Connor ZaryCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Flames count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SEA

Points: 1 in 17.9 min, Oct 30 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 6 of 10 games against SEA on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −170
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At −170 the price is worse than our fair −147, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
+1335 books	−1701 book	5/10
+6504 books	—	10/10
+30001 book	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings9 min ago	+125	−170Best
Bally Bet9 min ago	+133Best	—
betPARX7 min ago	+133Best	—
BetRivers7 min ago	+133Best	—
FanDuel5 min ago	+126	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:57 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under: No move since first seen

Mikael Backlund's full game log and splits