Martin Necas

Colorado Avalanche · C · #88

COL @ CBJ · Tue, Nov 3 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1653 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different yesterday

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayRest · back-to-back
Avalanche played the day before (at CHI): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Josh Manson: Out (ankle)
Under 2.5 without him: 2 of 8; with him: 51 of 98 (106 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jet Greaves started CBJ's last game
Saves: 188 of 212 (.887) over his last 10 games · 5 of CBJ's last 10 starts · no probable starter posted yet
Defense vs forwards
CBJ allow 18.9 shots on goal a game to forwards: 22nd most of 32
12 games · last 10 games: 18.3, 24th most

80%8 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at DAL, 2026-10-13: 2, hit, 23.4 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-14: 0, hit, 22.4 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-16: 1, hit, 21 min
at PHI, 2026-10-19: 2, hit, 17.7 min
at NJ, 2026-10-20: 3, missed, 19.1 min
vs TB, 2026-10-23: 1, hit, 16.5 min
at NSH, 2026-10-25: 0, hit, 19.1 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-28: 4, missed, 19.6 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-31: 2, hit, 20 min
at CHI, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 16.5 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CBJ in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 6 against CBJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Nathan MacKinnonC
Devon ToewsD
Artturi LehkonenLW
Josh MansonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Avalanche count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CBJ

Shots on Goal: 3 in 20.9 min, Jan 10 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against CBJ on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 1.6; −0.9 vs line
Median: 1.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −165
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −171

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −171, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−10001 book	—	2/10
−2101 book	—	5/10
+1233 books	−1653 books	8/10
+3401 book	—	9/10
+8501 book	—	10/10
+20001 book	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet6 hr ago	+110	−155Best
Pinnacle6 hr ago	+123	−165
DraftKings6 hr ago	+135Best	−185
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under −152 → −165 since first seen

Martin Necas's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:12 PM ET.