Martin Necas

Colorado Avalanche · C · #88

COL @ CBJ · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −2205 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightRest · back-to-back
Avalanche played last night (at CHI): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Josh Manson: Out (ankle)
Over 0.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: 68 of 99 (107 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jet Greaves (Expected)
Saves: 188 of 212 (.887) over his last 10 games · 5 of CBJ's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
CBJ allow 6.83 points a game to forwards: 10th most of 32
12 games · last 10 games: 6.70, 11th most

60%6 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at DAL, 2026-10-13: 2, cleared, 23.4 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-14: 0, missed, 22.4 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-16: 3, cleared, 21 min
at PHI, 2026-10-19: 1, cleared, 17.7 min
at NJ, 2026-10-20: 0, missed, 19.1 min
vs TB, 2026-10-23: 3, cleared, 16.5 min
at NSH, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 19.1 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 19.6 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-31: 2, cleared, 20 min
at CHI, 2026-11-02: 0, missed, 16.5 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 points.

Count only

Over 0.5 · L10

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Nathan MacKinnonC
Devon ToewsD
Artturi LehkonenLW
Josh MansonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Avalanche count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CBJ

Points: 0 in 20.9 min, Jan 10 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 5 of 6 games against CBJ on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 1.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 69%; at −220
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −162

Research, not a pick. At −195 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −162, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2205 books	+1451 book	6/10
+2105 books	—	5/10
+6505 books	—	2/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings3 min ago	−195Best	+145Best
FanDueljust now	−210	—
Bally Bet3 min ago	−220	—
betPARX2 min ago	−220	—
BetRivers2 min ago	−220	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:15 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over −196 → −220 since first seen

Martin Necas's full game log and splits