Leo Carlsson

Anaheim Ducks · C · #91

ANA @ EDM · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1776 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

vs CGY, 2026-10-13: 1, cleared, 22.3 min
vs BOS, 2026-10-16: 0, missed, 20.4 min
at NYR, 2026-10-19: 0, missed, 15.2 min
at NYI, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 20.7 min
at NJ, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 19.2 min
at PHI, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 20.4 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-27: 2, cleared, 16.2 min
vs BUF, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 22.2 min
vs OTT, 2026-11-01: 3, cleared, 20.7 min
at VAN, 2026-11-03: 1, cleared, 20.1 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Matt Tomkins (Confirmed)
Saves: 27 of 28 (.964) over his last 1 game · 1 of EDM's last 10 starts · Tristan Jarry started 6
Teammate out
Troy Terry: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 17 of 27; with him: 43 of 70 (97 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Poehling: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 12 of 18; with him: 48 of 79 (97 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
EDM allow 5.94 points a game to forwards: 22nd most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 5.70, 24th most

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against EDM in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 10 of 15 against EDM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Beckett SenneckeRW
Cutter GauthierLW
Jackson LaCombeD
Troy TerryRWInjured Reserve
Ryan PoehlingCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Ducks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs EDM

Points: 2 in 23.6 min, Oct 7 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 10 of 15 games against EDM on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.4; +0.9 vs line
Median: 1.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −177
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −187

Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −187, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1776 books	+1252 books	7/10
+2605 books	—	5/10
+8005 books	—	2/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings3 min ago	−170Best	+125
Pinnacle3 min ago	−170Best	+127Best
Bally Bet3 min ago	−177	—
betPARX2 min ago	−177	—
BetRivers4 min ago	−177	—
FanDuel3 min ago	−186	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:35 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −184 → −177 since first seen

Leo Carlsson's full game log and splits