Kirill Kaprizov

Minnesota Wild · LW · #97

MIN @ PHI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Points, typical price −1555 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Points hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 7 on the road).

at WPG, 2026-10-13: 2, missed, 20 min
vs STL, 2026-10-15: 3, missed, 22.9 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-18: 1, hit, 22.5 min
at EDM, 2026-10-20: 2, missed, 21.8 min
at CGY, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 24.9 min
at SEA, 2026-10-24: 2, missed, 17.9 min
at VAN, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 21.9 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-27: 2, missed, 24.6 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-29: 1, hit, 21.8 min
at WSH, 2026-11-01: 1, hit, 21.7 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 points.

Count only

Under 1.5 · L10

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Quinn HughesD
Matt BoldyLW
Joel Eriksson EkC
Brock FaberDInjured Reserve
Nick FolignoLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Wild count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Matchup · 16 games

PHI allow 6.69 points a game to forwards: 12th most of 32

Rest

1 day off since Nov 1 at WSH

Last vs PHI

Points: 1 in 24.9 min, Mar 12 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against PHI on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −155
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −155 the price is worse than our fair −133, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3605 books	—	1/10
+1285 books	−1551 book	4/10
+4005 books	—	9/10
+11001 book	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings14 min ago	+115	−155Best
Bally Bet14 min ago	+128Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	+128Best	—
BetRivers5 min ago	+128Best	—
FanDuel3 min ago	+122	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:28 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.