John Carlson
DET @ TB · Today 7:00 PM
What's different tonight
Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightDefense vs defensemen
DET allow 1.60 points a game to defensemen: 30th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 1.50, 29th most
Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 6 of 13; with him: no games (13 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Zemgus Girgensons: Out (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 2 of 2; with him: 4 of 11 (13 games as teammates). A small sample.
Opposing goalie
John Gibson (Expected)
Saves: 191 of 222 (.860) over his last 10 games · 6 of DET's last 10 starts
Game log against Over 0.5
40%4 of 10L10
Over 0.5 Points cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).
Splits
Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against DET in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 3 of 7 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 0.5 · L10Brandon HagelLW
Nikita KucherovRW
Jake GuentzelC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve
Zemgus GirgensonsCOut
The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs DET
Carlson didn't play the Apr 13 meeting; points the last time Carlson faced them: 0 (Jan 29)
Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 7 games against DET on record
L10 · Over 0.5
- Average
- 0.6
- +0.1 vs line
- Median
- 0
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 40%
- 4 of 10
- Price implies
- 50%
- at +100
- Books’ fair
- 45%
- margin removed
- Time on ice
- 18.8
- 10 games · 23.3 in 2025–26
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 0.5 45%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1005 books | −1451 book | 4/10 | |
| +4755 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +17001 book | — | 0/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings9 min ago | +105Best | −145Best |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | +100 | — |
| betPARX5 min ago | +100 | — |
| BetRivers4 min ago | +100 | — |
| FanDuel5 min ago | −102 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 3:33 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
0.5Over −104 → +100 since first seen