John Carlson

Tampa Bay Lightning · D · #74

DET @ TB · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Assists, typical price +1626 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs defensemen
DET allow 1.07 assists a game to defensemen: 30th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 0.90, 31st most
Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 3 of 13; with him: no games (13 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Zemgus Girgensons: Out (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 2 of 11 (13 games as teammates). A small sample.
Opposing goalie
John Gibson (Expected)
Saves: 191 of 222 (.860) over his last 10 games · 6 of DET's last 10 starts

10%1 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Assists cleared in 1 of his last 10 games (0 of 4 at home).

vs MIN, 2026-10-08: 0, missed, 16.8 min
at NYI, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 20.7 min
at NYR, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 19.9 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 21.6 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 18.4 min
at VGK, 2026-10-20: 0, missed, 17.8 min
at COL, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 18.3 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 21.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 0, missed, 13.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 19.2 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Count only

Over 0.5 · L10

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Brandon HagelLW
Nikita KucherovRW
Jake GuentzelC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve
Zemgus GirgensonsCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Carlson didn't play the Apr 13 meeting; assists the last time Carlson faced them: 0 (Jan 29)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 7 games against DET on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 0.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 10%; 1 of 10
Price implies: 38%; at +162
Books’ fair: 38%; margin removed
Time on ice: 18.8; 10 games · 23.3 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 0.5 38%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1626 books	−1971 book	1/10
	+8692 books	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet7 min ago	+170Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	+170Best	—
BetRivers2 min ago	+170Best	—
DraftKings7 min ago	+155	—
Pinnacle7 min ago	+146	−197Best
FanDuel1 min ago	+138	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:20 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over +140 → +162 since first seen

John Carlson's full game log and splits