John Carlson

Tampa Bay Lightning · D · #74

DET @ TB · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1442 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 1.5 without him: 7 of 13; with him: no games (13 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Zemgus Girgensons: Out (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 2 of 2; with him: 5 of 11 (13 games as teammates). A small sample.
Opposing goalie
Daniil Tarasov started DET's last game
Saves: 216 of 237 (.911) over his last 10 games · 3 of DET's last 10 starts · John Gibson started 6 · no probable starter posted yet
Defense vs defensemen
DET allow 7.2 shots on goal a game to defensemen: 22nd most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 6.7, 25th most

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

vs MIN, 2026-10-08: 9, cleared, 16.8 min
at NYI, 2026-10-10: 1, missed, 20.7 min
at NYR, 2026-10-13: 3, cleared, 19.9 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 21.6 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 4, cleared, 18.4 min
at VGK, 2026-10-20: 4, cleared, 17.8 min
at COL, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 18.3 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 21.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 13.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-31: 5, cleared, 19.2 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 4 of 7 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Brandon HagelLW
Nikita KucherovRW
Jake GuentzelC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve
Zemgus GirgensonsCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Carlson didn't play the Apr 13 meeting; shots on goal the last time Carlson faced them: 3 (Jan 29)

Over 1.5 hit in 4 of 7 games against DET on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 3.1; +1.6 vs line
Median: 3; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 59%; at −144
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Time on ice: 18.8; 10 games · 23.3 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 55%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6001 book	—	9/10
−1442 books	+1051 book	6/10
+2101 book	—	6/10
+5501 book	—	4/10
+14001 book	—	2/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings1 hr ago	−140Best	—
Bally Bet1 hr ago	−148	+105Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

−156 → −144 since first seen

John Carlson's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:12 PM ET.