Joel Farabee

Calgary Flames · LW · #86

CGY @ SEA · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −1882 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jonathan Huberdeau: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 0.5 without him: 26 of 42; with him: 41 of 50 (92 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Connor Zary: Out (knee)
Under 0.5 without him: 11 of 21; with him: 59 of 76 (97 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Philipp Grubauer (Expected)
Saves: 217 of 246 (.882) over his last 10 games · 7 of SEA's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
SEA allow 4.21 assists a game to forwards: 5th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 4.40, 6th most

40%4 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 4 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at ANA, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 20.4 min
at VGK, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 20.4 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-18: 1, missed, 19.8 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 18.9 min
vs DET, 2026-10-24: 2, missed, 18.9 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 24.1 min
at EDM, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 16.8 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-30: 2, missed, 15.3 min
at COL, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 17.6 min
at SJ, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 20.2 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 assists.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Matt CoronatoRW
Matvei GridinRW
Morgan FrostC
Jonathan HuberdeauLWInjured Reserve
Connor ZaryCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Flames count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SEA

Assists: 2 in 15.3 min, Oct 30 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 7 of 10 games against SEA on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −188
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −188 the price is worse than our fair −133, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1402 books	−1881 book	4/10
	+8001 book	—	8/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle4 min ago	+140Best	−188Best
FanDuel4 min ago	+140Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:53 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Joel Farabee's full game log and splits