Joel Farabee

Calgary Flames · LW · #86

CGY @ SEA · Tomorrow 10:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1782 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs forwards
SEA allow 22.2 shots on goal a game to forwards: 3rd most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 23.0, 4th most
Teammate out
Jonathan Huberdeau: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 2.5 without him: 30 of 42; with him: 38 of 50 (92 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Connor Zary: Out (knee)
Under 2.5 without him: 15 of 21; with him: 57 of 76 (97 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Philipp Grubauer (Expected)
Saves: 217 of 246 (.882) over his last 10 games · 7 of SEA's last 10 starts

60%6 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

at ANA, 2026-10-13: 2, hit, 20.4 min
at VGK, 2026-10-15: 3, missed, 20.4 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-18: 2, hit, 19.8 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 18.9 min
vs DET, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 18.9 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-26: 2, hit, 24.1 min
at EDM, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 16.8 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 15.3 min
at COL, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 17.6 min
at SJ, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 20.2 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Matt CoronatoRW
Matvei GridinRW
Morgan FrostC
Jonathan HuberdeauLWInjured Reserve
Connor ZaryCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Flames count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SEA

Shots on Goal: 1 in 15.3 min, Oct 30 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 8 of 10 games against SEA on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −178
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −154

Research, not a pick. At −178 the price is worse than our fair −154, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−13002 books	—	0/10
−2302 books	—	3/10
+1362 books	−1781 book	6/10
+3402 books	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel5 min ago	+136Best	−178Best
Bovada6 min ago	+136Best	—

Prices as of 8:51 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under −190 → −178 since first seen

Joel Farabee's full game log and splits