Joel Eriksson Ek

Minnesota Wild · C · #14

TB @ MIN · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1556 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (0 of 3 at home).

vs CBJ, 2026-10-18: 2, missed, 21.3 min
at EDM, 2026-10-20: 8, cleared, 22.8 min
at CGY, 2026-10-22: 3, cleared, 23.2 min
at SEA, 2026-10-24: 2, missed, 15.1 min
at VAN, 2026-10-25: 5, cleared, 20.2 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-27: 4, cleared, 21.4 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 17.2 min
at WSH, 2026-11-01: 3, cleared, 19.6 min
at PHI, 2026-11-03: 4, cleared, 19.3 min
vs SJ, 2026-11-06: 2, missed, 18.9 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–6 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
TB allow 16.7 shots on goal a game to forwards: 31st most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 17.3, 28th most
TodayRest · back-to-back
Wild played the day before (vs SJ): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Brock Faber: Injured Reserve (skull)
Over 2.5 without him: 12 of 18; with him: 44 of 76 (94 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Nick Foligno: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 2.5 without him: 12 of 17; with him: 14 of 20 (37 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TB in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 5 of 7 against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L10

Kirill KaprizovLW
Quinn HughesD
Matt BoldyLW
Brock FaberDInjured Reserve
Nick FolignoLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Wild count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TB

Shots on Goal: 6 in 21.3 min, Oct 8 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 5 of 7 games against TB on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3.5; +1 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −155
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −159

Research, not a pick. At −138 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −159, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25001 book	—	10/10
−5002 books	—	10/10
−1556 books	+1105 books	6/10
+1302 books	—	4/10
+2752 books	—	2/10
+5501 book	—	1/10
+12001 book	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−138Best	+106
Bally Bet3 min ago	−155	+110
betPARX3 min ago	−155	+110
BetRivers5 min ago	−155	—
Pinnacle3 min ago	−157	+118
DraftKings3 min ago	−170	+125Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:09 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

−152 → −155 since first seen

Joel Eriksson Ek's full game log and splits