Joel Eriksson Ek

Minnesota Wild · C · #14

TB @ MIN · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1406 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

90%9 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 9 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 at home).

vs CBJ, 2026-10-18: 1, cleared, 21.3 min
at EDM, 2026-10-20: 1, cleared, 22.8 min
at CGY, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 23.2 min
at SEA, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 15.1 min
at VAN, 2026-10-25: 1, cleared, 20.2 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 21.4 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-29: 1, cleared, 17.2 min
at WSH, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 19.6 min
at PHI, 2026-11-03: 1, cleared, 19.3 min
vs SJ, 2026-11-06: 1, cleared, 18.9 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayRest · back-to-back
Wild played the day before (vs SJ): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Brock Faber: Injured Reserve (skull)
Over 0.5 without him: 13 of 18; with him: 39 of 76 (94 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Nick Foligno: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 0.5 without him: 14 of 17; with him: 9 of 20 (37 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)
Saves: 216 of 244 (.885) over his last 10 games · 8 of TB's last 10 starts

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TB in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 3 of 7 against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Kirill KaprizovLW
Quinn HughesD
Matt BoldyLW
Brock FaberDInjured Reserve
Nick FolignoLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Wild count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TB

Points: 0 in 21.3 min, Oct 8 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 7 games against TB on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −140
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −159

Research, not a pick. At −139 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −159, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1406 books	+1052 books	9/10
+3255 books	—	2/10
+10602 books	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−139Best	—
betPARX3 min ago	−139Best	—
BetRivers4 min ago	−139Best	—
DraftKings4 min ago	−140	+105
Pinnacle4 min ago	−145	+110Best
FanDuel3 min ago	−172	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:54 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −178 → −140 since first seen

Joel Eriksson Ek's full game log and splits