Dylan Cozens

Ottawa Senators · C · #24

OTT @ BUF · Live

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1593 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

vs STL, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 17.4 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-15: 1, hit, 17.9 min
at PHI, 2026-10-17: 3, missed, 14.9 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-21: 4, missed, 18.4 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 17.3 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-24: 2, hit, 17.3 min
at VGK, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 17.5 min
at LA, 2026-10-29: 2, hit, 17.5 min
at SJ, 2026-10-31: 5, missed, 17.3 min
at ANA, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 17 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different yesterday

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayOpposing goalie
Colten Ellis (Confirmed)
Saves: 232 of 258 (.899) over his last 10 games · 3 of BUF's last 10 starts · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started 7
Teammate out
William Eklund: Injured Reserve (ankle)
Under 2.5 without him: 7 of 12; with him: 3 of 4 (16 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Warren Foegele: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 2.5 without him: 2 of 3; with him: 21 of 38 (41 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
BUF allow 20.6 shots on goal a game to forwards: 10th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 22.7, 5th most

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 5 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Tim StutzleC
Drake BathersonRW
Jake SandersonD
William EklundLWInjured Reserve
Warren FoegeleLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Senators count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BUF

Shots on Goal: 6 in 16.2 min, Apr 2 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −159
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −148

Research, not a pick. At −146 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −148, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−11001 book	—	1/10
−2401 book	—	4/10
+1123 books	−1593 books	6/10
+2901 book	—	8/10
+6501 book	—	9/10
+16001 book	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle10 hr ago	+110	−146Best
Bally Bet10 hr ago	+112	−159
DraftKings10 hr ago	+120Best	−160
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:43 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −144 → −159 since first seen

Dylan Cozens's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:43 PM ET.