Dylan Cozens

Ottawa Senators · C · #24

OTT @ BUF · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −1833 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Colten Ellis (Expected)
Saves: 232 of 258 (.899) over his last 10 games · 3 of BUF's last 10 starts · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started 7
Teammate out
William Eklund: Injured Reserve (ankle)
Under 0.5 without him: 6 of 12; with him: 4 of 4 (16 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Warren Foegele: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 0.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: 29 of 38 (41 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
BUF allow 4.00 assists a game to forwards: 11th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 3.70, 16th most

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

vs STL, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 17.4 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 17.9 min
at PHI, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 14.9 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-21: 1, missed, 18.4 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 17.3 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-24: 1, missed, 17.3 min
at VGK, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 17.5 min
at LA, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 17.5 min
at SJ, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 17.3 min
at ANA, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 17 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 assists.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 2 of 5 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Tim StutzleC
Drake BathersonRW
Jake SandersonD
William EklundLWInjured Reserve
Warren FoegeleLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Senators count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BUF

Assists: 0 in 16.2 min, Apr 2 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −183
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −162

Research, not a pick. At −183 the price is worse than our fair −162, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1363 books	−1831 book	6/10
	+8002 books	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle5 min ago	+136Best	−183Best
Bovada9 min ago	+136Best	—
FanDuel4 min ago	+134	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:49 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Dylan Cozens's full game log and splits