Brayden Point

Tampa Bay Lightning · C · #21

TB @ MIN · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1866 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at NYR, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 20.2 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 1, cleared, 18.6 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 2, cleared, 17.1 min
at VGK, 2026-10-20: 0, missed, 16.7 min
at COL, 2026-10-23: 2, cleared, 20.8 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 18.6 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 1, cleared, 20.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 23.2 min
vs DET, 2026-11-03: 2, cleared, 18.4 min
vs CHI, 2026-11-05: 1, cleared, 19.4 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Calvin Pickard (Confirmed)
Saves: 227 of 258 (.880) over his last 10 games · 1 of MIN's last 10 starts · Jesper Wallstedt started 9
TodayDefense vs forwards
MIN allow 4.22 points a game to forwards: the fewest of 32
18 games · last 10 games: 3.80, the fewest
Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 11 of 15; with him: 37 of 70 (85 games as teammates)
Time on ice
Last 5: 20 min · 2026–27: 19.4 (15 games)
Power play: 4.1 min last 5 · 4.6 2026–27

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 4 of 5 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Nikita KucherovRW
Brandon HagelLW
Jake GuentzelC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Points: 1 in 17.6 min, Oct 8 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −186
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −167

Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −167, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1866 books	+1252 books	8/10
+2505 books	pick'em only	3/10
+7504 books	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings2 min ago	−170Best	+125Best
Pinnacle2 min ago	−170Best	+125Best
Bally Bet2 min ago	−186	—
betPARX1 min ago	−186	—
BetRivers2 min ago	−186	—
FanDuel2 min ago	−205	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:54 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

−205 → −186 since first seen

Brayden Point's full game log and splits