Brayden Point

Tampa Bay Lightning · C · #21

TB @ MIN · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −2006 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

at NYR, 2026-10-13: 5, missed, 20.2 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 1, hit, 18.6 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 17.1 min
at VGK, 2026-10-20: 1, hit, 16.7 min
at COL, 2026-10-23: 3, missed, 20.8 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 2, hit, 18.6 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 3, missed, 20.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 23.2 min
vs DET, 2026-11-03: 4, missed, 18.4 min
vs CHI, 2026-11-05: 0, hit, 19.4 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Calvin Pickard (Confirmed)
Saves: 227 of 258 (.880) over his last 10 games · 1 of MIN's last 10 starts · Jesper Wallstedt started 9
Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 2.5 without him: 8 of 15; with him: 47 of 70 (85 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 17.7 shots on goal a game to forwards: 27th most of 32
18 games · last 10 games: 16.8, 29th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 20 min · 2026–27: 19.4 (15 games)
Power play: 4.1 min last 5 · 4.6 2026–27

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 5 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Nikita KucherovRW
Brandon HagelLW
Jake GuentzelC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Shots on Goal: 2 in 17.6 min, Oct 8 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against MIN on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 67%; at −200
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −152

Research, not a pick. At −195 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −152, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−10502 books	—	2/10
−1923 books	+1462 books	4/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	4/10
+1386 books	−2004 books	5/10
+3602 books	—	8/10
+8501 book	—	9/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings6 min ago	+145	−195Best
Pinnacle6 min ago	+145	−195Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	+138	−200
betPARX4 min ago	+138	−200
BetRivers6 min ago	+138	—
FanDuel5 min ago	+162Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:54 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

1.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Brayden Point's full game log and splits