Auston Matthews

Toronto Maple Leafs · C · #34

UTAH @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Points, typical price −2227 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
John Tavares: Out (lower body)
Under 1.5 without him: 5 of 9; with him: 59 of 74 (83 games as teammates)
TonightOpposing goalie
Sebastian Cossa (Confirmed)
Saves: 54 of 65 (.831) over his last 4 games · 2 of UTAH's last 10 starts · Karel Vejmelka started 8
Teammate out
Kirill Marchenko: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 1.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 9 of 14 (16 games as teammates). A small sample.
Teammate out
Max Domi: Injured Reserve (back)
Under 1.5 without him: 12 of 18; with him: 52 of 65 (83 games as teammates)

56%5 of 9L20 · Without Tavares

Under 1.5 Points hit in 5 of 9 games without John Tavares (his last 20 games).

at NYR, 2026-03-05: 0, hit, 20.8 min (not counted)
vs TB, 2026-03-07: 0, hit, 19.3 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-03-10: 0, hit, 22.5 min (not counted)
vs ANA, 2026-03-12: 1, hit, 13.3 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-09-29: 0, hit, 22.6 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-09-30: 0, hit, 20.1 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-10-03: 1, hit, 21.8 min (not counted)
vs NSH, 2026-10-06: 4, missed, 25.2 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-08: 1, hit, 21.5 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-10: 4, missed, 22.1 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-13: 2, missed, 20.2 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-10-15: 1, hit, 22.2 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 19.9 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-19: 3, missed, 21 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-20: 2, missed, 17.1 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 19.3 min
at EDM, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 17.2 min
at CGY, 2026-10-26: 1, hit, 19 min
at SEA, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 20.1 min
at VAN, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 20.2 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 points.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

William NylanderRW
John TavaresCOut
Kirill MarchenkoRWInjured Reserve
Max DomiCInjured Reserve
Marshall RifaiDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Maple Leafs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Points: 2 in 20.2 min, Oct 13 (away)

Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Tavares · Under 1.5

Average: 1.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 56%; 5 of 9
Price implies: 69%; at −222
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −173

Research, not a pick. At −210 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −173, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Tavares

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−3156 books	pick'em only	2/9
+1487 books	−2222 books	5/9
+4506 books	—	6/9

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Pinnacle1 min ago	+155	−210Best
DraftKings10 min ago	+170Best	−235
Bally Bet1 min ago	+148	—
betPARX1 min ago	+148	—
BetRivers1 min ago	+148	—
Bovada1 min ago	+145	—
FanDuel1 min ago	+164	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:49 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

Auston Matthews's full game log and splits