Zay Flowers

Baltimore Ravens · WR · #4

JAX @ BAL · Today 8:15 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Total Touchdowns, typical price +3206 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Total Touchdowns cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 at home).

vs NE, 2025-12-21: 1, cleared, 8 carries + targets
at GB, 2025-12-27: 1, cleared, 5 carries + targets
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 2, cleared, 6 carries + targets
at IND, 2026-09-13: 1, cleared, 6 carries + targets
at DAL, 2026-09-27: 0, missed, 7 carries + targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 1, cleared, 10 carries + targets
at ATL, 2026-10-11: 0, missed, 10 carries + targets
at CLE, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 12 carries + targets
vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 1, cleared, 11 carries + targets
at BUF, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 5 carries + targets

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 lineCarries + targets

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayRest
3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Out, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (led the last game). Over 0.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 14 of 42; with another BAL quarterback: 2 of 8
Carries + targets
Last 3: 9.3 carries + targets · 2026: 8.7 (7 games)
Target share: 30% last 3 games · 29% over 7 games this season
Game lines
BAL +10 · total 39.5 (7 sportsbooks)
BAL's games this season closed at 47 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against JAX in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against JAX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Total Touchdowns: 0 in 2 carries + targets, Dec 17, 2023 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against JAX on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 0.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 24%; at +320
Books’ fair: 21%; margin removed
Carries + targets: 8; 10 games · 7.5 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 0.5 21%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
+3206 books	−4711 book	6/10
+33005 books	—	1/10
+150004 books	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Total Touchdowns, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
FanDuel2 min ago	+380Best	—
Bovada4 min ago	+370	—
Pinnacle4 min ago	+349	−471Best
Bally Bet4 min ago	+320	—
betPARX1 min ago	+320	—
BetRivers2 min ago	+320	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:46 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: +300 → +320 since first seen