Zay Flowers

Baltimore Ravens · WR · #4

Over 4.5 Receptions, typical price +1335 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

4 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Lamar Jackson at quarterback; Jackson is out tonight. Without him (BAL): Over 4.5 in 6 of 8.

TonightQuarterback
Lamar Jackson: Out (thumb). He led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Doubtful, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (Questionable, ankle, led the last game). Over 4.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 24 of 43; with another BAL quarterback: 6 of 8
TonightRest
3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week
Defense vs wide receivers
JAX allow 13.6 receptions a game to wide receivers: 5th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 9 targets · 2026: 8.3 (7 games)
Target share: 30% last 3 games · 29% over 7 games this season

70%7 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Receptions cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 at home).

vs NE, 2025-12-21: 7, cleared, 7 targets
at GB, 2025-12-27: 4, missed, 5 targets
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 4, missed, 6 targets
at IND, 2026-09-13: 5, cleared, 6 targets
at DAL, 2026-09-27: 5, cleared, 6 targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 8, cleared, 10 targets
at ATL, 2026-10-11: 8, cleared, 9 targets
at CLE, 2026-10-18: 6, cleared, 11 targets
vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 8, cleared, 11 targets
at BUF, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 5 targets

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against JAX in his last 10; Over 4.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against JAX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Receptions: 1 in 2 targets, Dec 17, 2023 (away)

Over 4.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against JAX on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 5.5; +1 vs line
Median: 5.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 43%; at +133
Books’ fair: 42%; margin removed
Targets: 7.6; 10 games · 6.9 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 4.5 42%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25004 books	—	9/10
−4804 books	—	9/10
−1755 books	+1312 books	9/10
+1335 books	−1662 books	7/10
+2704 books	—	5/10
+5504 books	—	4/10
+11504 books	—	3/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Bally Bet2 min ago	+133Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	+133Best	—
BetRivers2 min ago	+133Best	—
FanDuel2 min ago	+128	−172
Pinnacle2 min ago	+120	−160Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:28 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

+115 → +133 since first seen