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Zay Flowers

Baltimore Ravens · WR · #4

JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM
OverUnder45.5
Over 45.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1135 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 45.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

5 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Lamar Jackson at quarterback; Jackson is out tonight. Without him (BAL): Over 45.5 in 6 of 8.

  • TonightQuarterback

    Lamar Jackson: Out (thumb). He led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Questionable, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (Questionable, ankle, led the last game). Over 45.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 28 of 43; with another BAL quarterback: 6 of 8

  • TonightDefense vs wide receivers

    JAX allow 195.7 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 2nd most of 32

    7 games

  • TonightRest

    3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week

  • Targets

    Last 3: 9 targets · 2026: 8.3 (7 games)

    Target share: 30% last 3 games · 29% over 7 games this season

Game log against Over 45.5

80%8 of 10L10

Over 45.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 at home).

  1. vs NE, 2025-12-21: 84, cleared, 7 targets
  2. at GB, 2025-12-27: 30, missed, 5 targets
  3. at PIT, 2026-01-04: 138, cleared, 6 targets
  4. at IND, 2026-09-13: 150, cleared, 6 targets
  5. at DAL, 2026-09-27: 84, cleared, 6 targets
  6. vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 118, cleared, 10 targets
  7. at ATL, 2026-10-11: 53, cleared, 9 targets
  8. at CLE, 2026-10-18: 66, cleared, 11 targets
  9. vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 137, cleared, 11 targets
  10. at BUF, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 5 targets
ClearedMissedThe 45.5 lineTargets

Count only

Over 45.5 · L10

Last vs JAX

Receiving Yards: 7 in 2 targets, Dec 17, 2023 (away)

Over 45.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against JAX on record

L10 · Over 45.5

Average
86
+40.5 vs line
Median
84
+38.5 vs line
Hit rate
80%
8 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −113
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Targets
7.6
10 games · 6.9 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 45.5 50%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−2954 books—9/10
−1554 books—8/10
pick'em onlypick'em only8/10
−1135 books−1164 books8/10
+1104 books—8/10
+1704 books—7/10
+2604 books—6/10
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 45.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 45.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 45.5Under 45.5
Bally Bet6 min ago−112Best—
betPARX3 min ago−112Best−117
BetRivers3 min ago−113−118
FanDuel1 min ago−114−114Best
Pinnacle6 min ago−114−116
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 10:47 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

45.5

−114 → −113 since first seen

Zay Flowers's full game log and splits