T.J. Hockenson
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
What's different tonight
Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightTargets
Last 3: 3.7 targets · 2026: 5.3 (7 games) · down 30%
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 19% over 7 games this season
Quarterback
Kyler Murray: Questionable (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 2. Over 4.5 with Murray at quarterback: 1 of 5; with another MIN quarterback: 14 of 35
Defense vs tight ends
BUF allow 6.1 receptions a game to tight ends: 9th most of 32
7 games
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET
Game log against Over 4.5
10%1 of 10L10
Over 4.5 Receptions cleared in 1 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 at home).
Splits
Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 4.5
- Average
- 3.8
- −0.7 vs line
- Median
- 3.5
- −1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 10%
- 1 of 10
- Price implies
- 57%
- at −130
- Books’ fair
- 53%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 4.6
- 10 games · 4.4 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 4.5 53%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −7501 book | — | 6/10 | |
| −2901 book | — | 5/10 | |
| −1301 book | −1021 book | 1/10 | |
| +1541 book | — | 1/10 | |
| +2801 book | — | 1/10 | |
| +4901 book | — | 1/10 | |
| +8001 book | — | 1/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 4.5 | Under 4.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel5 min ago | −130Best | −102Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 10:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
4.5Over No move since first seen