T.J. Hockenson
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
What's different tonight
Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightCarries + targets
Last 3: 3.7 carries + targets · 2026: 5.3 (7 games) · down 30%
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 19% over 7 games this season
Quarterback
Kyler Murray: Questionable (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 2. Over 0.5 with Murray at quarterback: 2 of 5; with another MIN quarterback: 7 of 35
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET
Game lines
MIN +3 · total 46.5 (6 sportsbooks)
MIN's games this season closed at 43.2 on average (7 games)
Game log against Over 0.5
40%4 of 10L10
Over 0.5 Total Touchdowns cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).
Count only
Over 0.5 · L10L10 · Over 0.5
- Average
- 0.4
- −0.1 vs line
- Median
- 0
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 40%
- 4 of 10
- Price implies
- 31%
- at +220
- Books’ fair
- —
- needs both sides
- Carries + targets
- 4.6
- 10 games · 4.5 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +2201 book | pick'em only | 4/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 0.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada7 min ago | +220Best | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 12:05 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
0.5Over +195 → +220 since first seen