Michael Penix Jr.
CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM
Game log against Over 219.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 219.5 Passing Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 157.3–275.1 passing yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 219.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs quarterbacks
CIN allow 260.9 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 6th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 30.3 attempts · 2026: 28 (6 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at TB
Game lines
ATL +3 · total 52.5 (9 sportsbooks)
ATL's games this season closed at 45.5 on average (8 games)
Splits
Over 219.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against CIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 219.5
- Average
- 209.6
- −9.9 vs line
- Median
- 222
- +2.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −120
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −107
Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −107, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −3501 book | — | 9/10 | |
| −2054 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 6/10 | |
| −1205 books | −1214 books | 6/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 6/10 | |
| −1064 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +1754 books | — | 1/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 219.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 219.5 | Under 219.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel4 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| Pinnacle9 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| betPARX4 min ago | −120 | −121 |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −120 | −121 |
| Bally Bet9 min ago | −121 | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:48 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
219.5221.5 → 219.5 since first seen