Michael Penix Jr.

Atlanta Falcons · QB · #9

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under31.5

Under 31.5 Passing Attempts, typical price −1154 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 31.5 Passing Attempts hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

at NE, 2025-11-02: 37, missed, 37 attempts
at IND, 2025-11-09: 28, hit, 28 attempts
vs CAR, 2025-11-16: 16, hit, 16 attempts
at GB, 2026-09-24: 25, hit, 25 attempts
at NO, 2026-10-05: 20, hit, 20 attempts
vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 32, missed, 32 attempts
vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 33, missed, 33 attempts
vs SF, 2026-10-25: 34, missed, 34 attempts
at TB, 2026-11-01: 24, hit, 24 attempts
vs CIN, 2026-11-08: 31, hit, 31 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 31.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 22.8–38.2 passing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Under 31.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
KC allow 34.5 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks: 10th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 29.7 attempts · 2026: 28.4 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs CIN
Game lines
ATL +3.5 · total 46.5 (7 sportsbooks)
ATL's games this season closed at 46.3 on average (9 games)

Splits

Under 31.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 31.5

Average: 28; −3.5 vs line
Median: 29.5; −2 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −114

Research, not a pick. At −105 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −114, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6703 books	—	4/10
−3353 books	—	4/10
−1903 books	—	5/10
−1134 books	−1153 books	6/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	7/10
+1453 books	—	8/10
+2253 books	—	9/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 31.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 31.5 Passing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 31.5	Under 31.5
Bovada3 min ago	−125	−105Best
betPARX3 min ago	−112Best	−115
BetRivers3 min ago	−113	−117
Bally Bet3 min ago	−112Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

31.5

−120 → −115 since first seen