Michael Penix Jr.
CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM
Game log against Under 225.5
50%5 of 10L10
Under 225.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 168.4–283.8 pass+rush yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 225.5 · facts from past games, not a pickPass attempts + carries
Last 3: 34 attempts + carries · 2026: 30.8 (6 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at TB
Game lines
ATL +3 · total 52.5 (7 sportsbooks)
ATL's games this season closed at 45.5 on average (8 games)
CIN injuries
Jordan Battle (S, Questionable, 6.5 tackles); Kyle Dugger (S, Questionable, 4.9 tackles); DJ Turner II (CB, Questionable, 2.8 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10)
Splits
Under 225.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against CIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 225.5
- Average
- 214.4
- −11.1 vs line
- Median
- 223.5
- −2 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −115
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 50%
- estimate · fair −101
Research, not a pick. At −115 the price is worse than our fair −101, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 5/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 6/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook at 225.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 225.5 | Under 225.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada14 min ago | −115Best | −115Best |
Prices as of 7:55 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
225.5226.5 → 225.5 since first seen