Justin Jefferson

Minnesota Vikings · WR · #18

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price +1156 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at DAL, 2025-12-14: 2, hit, 8 targets
at NYG, 2025-12-21: 6, missed, 8 targets
vs DET, 2025-12-25: 4, hit, 5 targets
vs GB, 2026-01-04: 8, missed, 11 targets
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 8, missed, 9 targets
at CHI, 2026-09-20: 3, hit, 6 targets
at TB, 2026-09-27: 2, hit, 2 targets
at NO, 2026-10-11: 6, missed, 7 targets
vs IND, 2026-10-25: 4, hit, 7 targets
at DET, 2026-11-01: 5, hit, 9 targets

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Monday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Kyler Murray: Questionable (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 2. Under 5.5 with Murray at quarterback: 3 of 4; with another MIN quarterback: 20 of 42
Defense vs wide receivers
BUF allow 12.0 receptions a game to wide receivers: 10th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 7.7 targets · 2026: 6.7 (6 games)
Target share: 28% last 3 games · 26% over 6 games this season
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 4.8; −0.7 vs line
Median: 4.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 47%; at +115
Books’ fair: 43%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At +120 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −135, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−100003 books	—	2/10
−9104 books	—	3/10
−3354 books	—	5/10
−1506 books	+1154 books	6/10
+1334 books	—	8/10
+2404 books	—	8/10
+4404 books	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
Pinnacle3 min ago	−159	+120Best
FanDuel2 min ago	−158	+118
betPARX3 min ago	−150Best	+115
Bovada3 min ago	−150Best	+115
Bally Bet3 min ago	−150Best	—
BetRivers3 min ago	−150Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:16 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Under: +118 → +115 since first seen