Justin Jefferson
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
What's different tonight
Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Kyler Murray: Questionable (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 2. Over 0.5 with Murray at quarterback: 2 of 4; with another MIN quarterback: 13 of 42
Carries + targets
Last 3: 8 carries + targets · 2026: 6.8 (6 games)
Target share: 28% last 3 games · 26% over 6 games this season
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET
Game lines
MIN +3 · total 46.5 (6 sportsbooks)
MIN's games this season closed at 43.2 on average (7 games)
Game log against Over 0.5
30%3 of 10L10
Over 0.5 Total Touchdowns cleared in 3 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 at home).
Splits
Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 0.5
- Average
- 0.4
- −0.1 vs line
- Median
- 0
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 30%
- 3 of 10
- Price implies
- 36%
- at +175
- Books’ fair
- —
- needs both sides
- Carries + targets
- 7.4
- 10 games · 8.4 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1751 book | pick'em only | 3/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 0.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada5 min ago | +175Best | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 5:57 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
0.5Over +155 → +175 since first seen