Justin Jefferson
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
What's different tonight
Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Kyler Murray: Questionable (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 2. Over 5.5 with Murray at quarterback: 1 of 4; with another MIN quarterback: 22 of 42
Defense vs wide receivers
BUF allow 12.0 receptions a game to wide receivers: 10th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 7.7 targets · 2026: 6.7 (6 games)
Target share: 28% last 3 games · 26% over 6 games this season
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET
Game log against Over 5.5
40%4 of 10L10
Over 5.5 Receptions cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).
Splits
Over 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 5.5
- Average
- 4.8
- −0.7 vs line
- Median
- 4.5
- −1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 40%
- 4 of 10
- Price implies
- 61%
- at −158
- Books’ fair
- 57%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 7.2
- 10 games · 8.3 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 5.5 57%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −7501 book | — | 7/10 | |
| −3101 book | — | 5/10 | |
| −1581 book | +1181 book | 4/10 | |
| +1221 book | — | 2/10 | |
| +2201 book | — | 2/10 | |
| +3601 book | — | 0/10 | |
| +5801 book | — | 0/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 5.5 | Under 5.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel6 min ago | −158Best | +118Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 10:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
5.5Over No move since first seen