Justin Jefferson
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
Game log against Over 78.5
40%4 of 10L10
Over 78.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).
What's different on Monday
Over 78.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Kyler Murray: Questionable (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 2. Over 78.5 with Murray at quarterback: 1 of 4; with another MIN quarterback: 22 of 42
Defense vs wide receivers
BUF allow 154.0 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 9th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 7.7 targets · 2026: 6.7 (6 games)
Target share: 28% last 3 games · 26% over 6 games this season
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET
Splits
Over 78.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 78.5
- Average
- 57.3
- −21.2 vs line
- Median
- 49.5
- −29 vs line
- Hit rate
- 40%
- 4 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −115
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 7.2
- 10 games · 8.3 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 78.5 50%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1554 books | — | 4/10 | |
| −1144 books | −1143 books | 4/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 4/10 | |
| −1152 books | −1172 books | 4/10 | |
| +1004 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +1454 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +2054 books | — | 1/10 |
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 78.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 78.5 | Under 78.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle4 min ago | −113Best | −117 |
| Bovada9 min ago | −115 | −115Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 12:20 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
78.568.5 → 78.5 since first seen