Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills · QB · #17

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM

Over Under235.5

Over 235.5 Passing Yards, typical price −1154 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 235.5 Passing Yards cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

vs PHI, 2025-12-28: 262, cleared, 35 attempts
at JAX, 2026-01-11: 273, cleared, 35 attempts
at DEN, 2026-01-17: 283, cleared, 39 attempts
at HOU, 2026-09-13: 334, cleared, 29 attempts
vs DET, 2026-09-17: 248, cleared, 31 attempts
vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 204, missed, 26 attempts
vs NE, 2026-10-04: 253, cleared, 33 attempts
at LAR, 2026-10-12: 210, missed, 19 attempts
at LV, 2026-10-18: 255, cleared, 33 attempts
vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 289, cleared, 34 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 235.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 180.6–296 passing yards.

What's different on Monday

Over 235.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

MonDefense vs quarterbacks
MIN allow 180.1 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 31st most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 28.7 attempts · 2026: 29.3 (7 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL
Game lines
BUF −3.5 · total 45.5 (8 sportsbooks)
BUF's games this season closed at 51.9 on average (7 games)

Splits

Over 235.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 235.5

Average: 261.1; +25.6 vs line
Median: 258.5; +23 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −123

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −123, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7703 books	—	10/10
−3454 books	—	10/10
−1594 books	—	8/10
−1154 books	−1143 books	8/10
−1142 books	−1142 books	8/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	8/10
+1254 books	—	7/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 235.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 235.5 Passing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 235.5	Under 235.5
Bally Bet3 min ago	−115Best	—
betPARX3 min ago	−115Best	−113Best
Bovada2 min ago	−115Best	−115
BetRivers3 min ago	−117	−114
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

235.5

236.5 → 235.5 since first seen