Josh Allen
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
Game log against Over 270.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 270.5 Pass+Rush Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 207.9–331.4 pass+rush yards.
What's different on Monday
Over 270.5 · facts from past games, not a pickPass attempts + carries
Last 3: 36 attempts + carries · 2026: 37.1 (7 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL
Game lines
BUF −3.5 · total 45.5 (9 sportsbooks)
BUF's games this season closed at 51.9 on average (7 games)
MIN injuries
Theo Jackson (S, Questionable, 3.6 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10)
Splits
Over 270.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 270.5
- Average
- 300.7
- +30.2 vs line
- Median
- 311.5
- +41 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −115
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 51%
- estimate · fair −104
Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −104, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −4553 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −2103 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −1154 books | −1153 books | 7/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 7/10 | |
| −1033 books | — | 7/10 | |
| +1853 books | — | 6/10 | |
| +3403 books | — | 3/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks at 270.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 270.5 | Under 270.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −114Best | — |
| betPARX5 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −115 | −115 |
| Bovada11 min ago | −115 | −115 |
Prices as of 10:20 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
270.5No move since first seen